June 25 2015

 
       
Complete Analysis of the Tour de France
 

Miami, FL, June 25th, 2015

* 2015 designed for a climber.
The 2015 version was designed for a pure climber. You may ask why ... first of all with an individual time trial of only 13 kilometers and another team time trial under mountain terrain of 28 kilometers; both of them are the appetizer of this Tour. Then taking into consideration all stages since the year 2009, we will see gradually how the flat stages have been fallen in numbers from 10 to 5, which is what we will see in this July. As for the days of mountain stages, and considering the mid and high combined, the increase has been going up from 8 to 14, that is, what we will have this year. Now, just looking at the high category stages, they have increased from 7 (2009) and 6 (2010) to 9 this year, as we shall see them soon. Not only that, but the uphill finish as well had growth from 3 to 7. This Tour features riders like, Froome, Contador, Nibali, Rodriguez and Quintana; as they are in paper the five favorites to take the crown. Who will be? On that respect we have to go and look each one in particular, but for now we leave it to the imagination of each one of you. The table been linked here illustrates in a more concrete way this analysis.
* Are we facing a new phenomenon in cycling?
How has it been the first participation in the Tour de France for the biggest names in international cycling? This is the question we asked in search of how ages have played an important role in the development of the biggest global event. We have taken a dozen names in our analytical sample in not at any specific order: Contador, Quintana, Froome, Nibali, Indurain, Merckx, Pantani, Hinault, Evans, Wiggins, Lemond and Anquetil.
The oldest in his first participation was Evans whom at the age of 28 took 8th place, and then we have the 26 year old Wiggins, occupying the position 123. In the next age at 25; Indurain unfortunately did not finish. For those at the age group of 24, the sample gave us four important names, Nibali occupying 19th place, Pantani with a third place; and two giants who took the victory in their first participation, Hinault and Merckx. For the last group, the youngest to debut at just the age of 23 year old, we have as well four riders, Froome that finished in the position 83, Contador placed 31, Lemond with a third place, and Quintana with a worthy second place. Even a year younger than the two giants (Hinault and Merckx) in his first participation at the Tour, could Quintana be categorized as the new phenomenon of the cycling world? This is for you to analyze it, as time will tell us!
* Why we may think that Quintana can win the next Tour of France?
In the last two articles we talked as the 2015 Tour’s version was designed for a climber; also we mentioned the names of the "big" world cycling participation on their first time at the Tour de France.
Now we go into a slightly deeper issue, as we can gather some information of the main contenders. The data it is not coming from each of the involved in the analysis, information is collected from different news papers and / or studies done previously by reliable entities. The information obtained from Froome, Nibali Contador and Quintana refers to the production of watts per kilogram, and the amount of oxygen in milliliters per minute per kilogram for each.
The linked chart gives us a clear view of who in theory could be the next winner.
We must take into account two important factors, which are the state of the heart during the competition because an small infection for example, would imply that the heart rate increases and thus, decreasing the performance, therefore the importance of keeping an optimal health for the 3 weeks of racing. The other factor is the extent to which the tolerance of pain can make a difference, when you get to a place, where only a few, could navigate throughout to finish victorious. To this, we must add the necessary coldness needed to read the race, stage by stage to take the final victory.
* Historically speaking by age group.
Making an analysis of the Tour de France from 1969 to 2014, we sampled each of the winners and their victories by the age they were when they won. The past 46 years have left us very interesting data, the most amount of winners, were 10 at the age of 28, and no one has ever won at 22 or 35. Then we find two age groups, 27 and 29 they are at each side of the age group with most wins, but in this case each one has 5 wins. At the following level of event victories, meaning 4; we have four age groups, 24, 25, 30 and 31 representing 26% of all riders analyzed. Following the parameters of the linked table, you can see, that taking into consideration the four favorites to get the victory at this Tour (Froome[30], Nibali[31], Contador[33] and Quintana[25]) the less favorite will be Contador, since his age group (33) has won only two times historically. Yet leave us with the same amount of chances to their rivals. Mathematically speaking, the numbers will bring us even closer to reality? Or by the contrary we have not to consider them at all? You Decide!
PS/ racer age equal to calendar year.
* How we see the Tour, first week: The mur of Huy and Cambrai.
From the start this Tour, we will be in the tip of the saddle. The third stage with the 1300 meters of the death at the wall of Huy, is a fraction where positioning is an important factor for those with title aspirations. Huy in Belgian territory, has been the starting place three times, but it is the first time that it will be used as an ending stage, this is a place that has served since 1983 as arrival of one of the great classics of the cycling world, La Fleche Wallonne.
Another important stage will be the next day, some may wonder why? The organizers want us to continue with the feeling of classics on a three-week event, nothing more or nothing less, they will face cobbled sections. Six portions of one of the five monuments of the world of cycling (Paris-Roubaix) are included in this fraction, which would be about 30 km. In addition we will have seven more sections, adding another 13 kilometers of trembling on the handlebars, now in case of a rainy day, precautions have to be doubled. Power riders will have to protect their climbers, and thus overcome a difficult day with cobblestone. The place of arrival is the first time presented at the Tour.
* How we see the Tour, second week: La Pierre-Saint-Martin y Plateau de Beille
In a Tour so atypical as this year’s event, or in other words, 14 mountain stages, and an individual climbing time trial... but before analyzing the two stages of importance in this segment, we have to take into consideration the following data: in the last 32 years of the Tour 28.1% have had 8 stages of climbing and another 25% of them, have 7 fractions with the same characteristics. We can only get close to a comparison of this year’s event with the following tours, 2014, 2013 and 1996; each with 12 hilly stages. All three have in common that the final winner, took or retook the lead in the second week of competition. Therefore the importance of stage 10 and 12 of this year’s Tour.
The tenth fraction is completely unknown, because it is the first time that they will have it in the Pyrenees. With an uphill finale of 15 kilometers, where there are two difficult sections, the first one of a single kilometer and the second one, of three k averaging a 10% incline, to give us a wholly-average of 7.4%. Between this one, and the twelfth stage, which it has similar characteristics, but with 16 kilometers and three sections, which altogether provide us with five kilometers at 9%, where the climb itself has an average of 7.9%. After these two stages, we will see a new yellow jersey leader, with a 70% of chance to keep it until Paris.
* How we see the Tour, third week: Alpe D’Huez
The queen stage will be decisive for this Tour, nothing more or nothing less than Alpe d'Huez. In its 28th year of inclusion it has been used 31 times in the event's history, in 1964 became part as intermediate mountain stage, in 1979 stage 17 and 18 culminated there, in 2013 was passed by there twice. It has been utilized 10 times within the second week of competition, and 29 times within the third week. Only 14% of the winners (4) of this fraction were the winners of the Tour. Now we wonder how was the performance of those who have won the tour compared to the winners of this stage ... I want to tell you that only twice, they have coincided with the same time; and was Greg Lemond in 1986 and 1990. Paradoxically the shortest and the longest time belong to Miguel Indurain, who in 1991 came within a second and in 1994 to 7 minutes and 56 seconds. 45% of winners in Paris have been within a minute of each other with the winner in Alpe d'Huez. In our previous analysis we left a 30% room of victory up in the air, it was precisely because of the queen stage, which is identically to the number 19 back in 2011, with the Col du Telegraphe (1), Col du Galibier (HC) and Alpe d'Huez (HC) of 13.8 kilometers averaging 8.1% with a maximum of 12% composed of 21 hairpin bends; where Andy Schleck (new leader) and Cadel Evans gave up 57 seconds, but the next day in the individual time trial the Australian took yellow home. Now in 2013 it was the last year in which we saw this climb, the history changed; three of the four favorites of 2015 were there, all of them conceded time in reference to the stage winner, Contador lost 4:15, Froome 3:18 and Quintana 2:12, but the British had enough cushion to beat the Colombian in Paris for 4:20.
Everything is over the table within the last 6 articles I have published, whom it will be the one lifting his victorious arms and will hear the notes of his national anthem in the French capital?
 
© Fernando Angel
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