* 2015 designed for a climber.
The 2015 version was designed for a pure climber. You may ask
why ... first of all with an individual time trial of only 13
kilometers and another team time trial under mountain terrain of
28 kilometers; both of them are the appetizer of this Tour. Then
taking into consideration all stages since the year 2009, we
will see gradually how the flat stages have been fallen in
numbers from 10 to 5, which is what we will see in this July. As
for the days of mountain stages, and considering the mid and
high combined, the increase has been going up from 8 to 14, that
is, what we will have this year. Now, just looking at the high
category stages, they have increased from 7 (2009) and 6 (2010)
to 9 this year, as we shall see them soon. Not only that, but
the uphill finish as well had growth from 3 to 7. This Tour
features riders like, Froome, Contador, Nibali, Rodriguez and
Quintana; as they are in paper the five favorites to take the
crown. Who will be? On that respect we have to go and look each
one in particular, but for now we leave it to the imagination of
each one of you. The table been linked here illustrates in a more concrete
way this analysis.
* Are we facing a new phenomenon in cycling?
How has it been the first participation in the Tour de France
for the biggest names in international cycling? This is the
question we asked in search of how ages have played an important
role in the development of the biggest global event. We have
taken a dozen names in our analytical sample in not at any
specific order: Contador, Quintana, Froome, Nibali, Indurain,
Merckx, Pantani, Hinault, Evans, Wiggins, Lemond and Anquetil.
The oldest in his first participation was Evans whom at the age
of 28 took 8th place, and then we have the 26 year old Wiggins,
occupying the position 123. In the next age at 25; Indurain
unfortunately did not finish. For those at the age group of 24,
the sample gave us four important names, Nibali occupying 19th
place, Pantani with a third place; and two giants who took the
victory in their first participation, Hinault and Merckx. For
the last group, the youngest to debut at just the age of 23 year
old, we have as well four riders, Froome that finished in the
position 83, Contador placed 31, Lemond with a third place, and
Quintana with a worthy second place. Even a year younger than
the two giants (Hinault and Merckx) in his first participation
at the Tour, could Quintana be categorized as the new phenomenon
of the cycling world? This is for you to analyze it, as time
will tell us!
* Why we may think that Quintana can win the next Tour
of France?
In the last two articles we talked as the 2015 Tour’s version
was designed for a climber; also we mentioned the names of the
"big" world cycling participation on their first time at the
Tour de France.
Now we go into a slightly deeper issue, as we can gather some
information of the main contenders. The data it is not coming
from each of the involved in the analysis, information is
collected from different news papers and / or studies done
previously by reliable entities. The information obtained from
Froome, Nibali Contador and Quintana refers to the production of
watts per kilogram, and the amount of oxygen in milliliters per
minute per kilogram for each.
The linked chart gives us a clear view of who in theory could
be the next winner.
We must take into account two important factors, which are the
state of the heart during the competition because an small
infection for example, would imply that the heart rate increases
and thus, decreasing the performance, therefore the importance
of keeping an optimal health for the 3 weeks of racing. The
other factor is the extent to which the tolerance of pain can
make a difference, when you get to a place, where only a few,
could navigate throughout to finish victorious. To this, we must
add the necessary coldness needed to read the race, stage by
stage to take the final victory.
* Historically speaking by age group.
Making an analysis of the Tour de France from 1969 to 2014, we
sampled each of the winners and their victories by the age they
were when they won. The past 46 years have left us very
interesting data, the most amount of winners, were 10 at the age
of 28, and no one has ever won at 22 or 35. Then we find two age
groups, 27 and 29 they are at each side of the age group with
most wins, but in this case each one has 5 wins. At the
following level of event victories, meaning 4; we have four age
groups, 24, 25, 30 and 31 representing 26% of all riders
analyzed. Following the parameters of the
linked table, you can
see, that taking into consideration the four favorites to get
the victory at this Tour (Froome[30], Nibali[31], Contador[33]
and Quintana[25]) the less favorite will be Contador, since his
age group (33) has won only two times historically. Yet leave us
with the same amount of chances to their rivals. Mathematically
speaking, the numbers will bring us even closer to reality? Or
by the contrary we have not to consider them at all? You Decide!
PS/ racer age equal to calendar year.
* How we see the Tour, first week: The mur of Huy and
Cambrai.
From the start this Tour, we will be in the tip of the saddle.
The third stage with the 1300 meters of the death at the
wall of Huy, is a fraction where positioning is an important factor for
those with title aspirations. Huy in Belgian territory, has been
the starting place three times, but it is the first time that it
will be used as an ending stage, this is a place that has served
since 1983 as arrival of one of the great classics of the
cycling world, La Fleche Wallonne.
Another important stage will be the next day, some may wonder
why? The organizers want us to continue with the feeling of
classics on a three-week event, nothing more or nothing less,
they will face cobbled sections. Six portions of one of the five
monuments of the world of cycling (Paris-Roubaix) are included
in this fraction, which would be about 30 km. In addition we
will have seven more sections, adding another 13 kilometers of
trembling on the handlebars, now in case of a rainy day,
precautions have to be doubled. Power riders will have to
protect their climbers, and thus overcome a difficult day with
cobblestone. The place of arrival is the first time presented at
the Tour.
* How we see the Tour, second week: La
Pierre-Saint-Martin y Plateau de Beille
In a Tour so atypical as this year’s event, or in other words,
14 mountain stages, and an individual climbing time trial... but
before analyzing the two stages of importance in this segment,
we have to take into consideration the following data: in the
last 32 years of the Tour 28.1% have had 8 stages of climbing
and another 25% of them, have 7 fractions with the same
characteristics. We can only get close to a comparison of this
year’s event with the following tours, 2014, 2013 and 1996; each
with 12 hilly stages. All three have in common that the final
winner, took or retook the lead in the second week of
competition. Therefore the importance of stage 10 and 12 of this
year’s Tour.
The tenth fraction is completely unknown, because it is the
first time that they will have it in the Pyrenees. With an
uphill finale of 15 kilometers, where there are two difficult
sections, the first one of a single kilometer and the second
one, of three k averaging a 10% incline, to give us a
wholly-average of 7.4%. Between this one, and the twelfth stage,
which it has similar characteristics, but with 16 kilometers and
three sections, which altogether provide us with five kilometers
at 9%, where the climb itself has an average of 7.9%. After
these two stages, we will see a new yellow jersey leader, with a
70% of chance to keep it until Paris.
* How we see the Tour, third week: Alpe D’Huez
The queen stage will be decisive for this Tour, nothing more or
nothing less than Alpe d'Huez. In its 28th year of inclusion it
has been used 31 times in the event's history, in 1964 became
part as intermediate mountain stage, in 1979 stage 17 and 18
culminated there, in 2013 was passed by there twice. It has been
utilized 10 times within the second week of competition, and 29
times within the third week. Only 14% of the winners (4) of this
fraction were the winners of the Tour. Now we wonder how was the
performance of those who have won the tour compared to the
winners of this stage ... I want to tell you that only twice,
they have coincided with the same time; and was Greg Lemond in
1986 and 1990. Paradoxically the shortest and the longest time
belong to Miguel Indurain, who in 1991 came within a second and
in 1994 to 7 minutes and 56 seconds. 45% of winners in Paris
have been within a minute of each other with the winner in Alpe
d'Huez. In our previous analysis we left a 30% room of victory
up in the air, it was precisely because of the queen stage,
which is identically to the number 19 back in 2011, with the Col
du Telegraphe (1), Col du Galibier (HC) and Alpe d'Huez (HC) of
13.8 kilometers averaging 8.1% with a maximum of 12% composed of
21 hairpin bends; where Andy Schleck (new leader) and Cadel
Evans gave up 57 seconds, but the next day in the individual
time trial the Australian took yellow home. Now in 2013 it was
the last year in which we saw this climb, the history changed;
three of the four favorites of 2015 were there, all of them
conceded time in reference to the stage winner, Contador lost
4:15, Froome 3:18 and Quintana 2:12, but the British had enough
cushion to beat the Colombian in Paris for 4:20.
Everything is over the table within the last 6 articles I have
published, whom it will be the one lifting his victorious arms
and will hear the notes of his national anthem in the French
capital?
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